By Donald L. Cohn

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Systems Analysis and Modeling in Defense: Development, Trends, and Issues

This publication comprises the lawsuits of an interna­ tional symposium dedicated to Modeling and research of safety techniques within the context of land/air battle. It used to be backed by way of Panel VII (on security purposes of Operational study) of NATO's security study staff (DRG) and happened 27-29 July 1982 at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

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It is expected that this trend will continue, especially with the widespread use of microcomputers. The importance of using good models that represent combat dynamics with a reasonable degree of fidelity was stressed by attendees, otherwise commanders may develop incorrect decision making behavior. Trends and Recommendations No new modeling techniques were evident at this (1974) conference. There were general agreements that, since 1974, a number of new techniques have been tried in developing campaign models.

In particular the technique of interactive field trials appears to be a viable verification tool. For example, based on an analysis of such trials in the context of armoured warfare, Rowland demonstrates that Lanchester type models represent a satisfactory hypothesis concerning the attrition in an engagement. However, an assumption that all elements of the opposing units participate simultaneously in the engagement would very likely be at fault. The particular trials show that an engagement or battle can best be understood as a sequence of minibattles at platoon/troop level in which the weapons are * It is for this reason that a rigorous verification of combat models in the sense of physics and engineering must be considered to be impossible in principle.

It is important to improve this aspect of campaign models since weapons are being designed and procured that are intended to strike deeper (deep interdiction), and some nations are continuing to develop the "second echelon attack strategy". Maneuver There is a need for better representation of maneuver in campaign models. Distinctions were made between movement and maneuver in campaign models. The former is a process of going from one position in the battlefield to another, generally with no change in capabilities.

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